Two Deals Undone: Ethiopia’s Peace Collapses as Iran’s Hormuz Offer Is Rejected
Nexa Insight · Regional Analysis · Horn of Africa Weekly Update — Issue No. 8. Coverage period 15–26 September 2026.
Sudan
Daily Briefing: Ethiopia’s War Returns to Tigray as Trump Turns Down Iran’s Hormuz Plan
Fighting between Ethiopia’s federal forces and a seven-group rebel alliance widened into what Tigrayan officials call a full war, effectively shattering the 2022 peace deal, as a seafarer was killed in a fresh Strait of Hormuz attack and Donald Trump reportedly rejected Iran’s own plan to reopen it. Verified developments, 23–26 September 2026.
Daily Briefing: Iran’s Hormuz Offer, Ethiopia’s New Coalition, and Saudi Arabia’s Arms Search
A senior Iranian official says Tehran can reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if Washington eases military pressure, the UN voices alarm over a new armed-group coalition in Ethiopia, and Saudi Arabia leans on allies as its interceptors run low. Verified developments, 20-23 September 2026.
Daily Briefing: A Tanker Is Struck in Hormuz as Houthis Claim a Second Saudi Target
An unidentified projectile struck a tanker entering the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthis claimed a strike on Aramco facilities at the Red Sea port of Yanbu alongside their attack on Riyadh, and Sudan’s diplomatic track reopened in New York. Verified developments, 20-22 September 2026.
Daily Briefing: Houthis Hit Riyadh for the First Time as Washington Steps Back
A Houthi missile reached Riyadh for the first time in this war and Saudi air defenses intercepted it, a mine collapse killed dozens in RSF-held Sudan, and Washington declined direct intervention while Riyadh leaned on Turkey and Pakistan instead. Verified developments, 19-21 September 2026.
Daily Briefing: China Upgrades Its Djibouti Base as Sudan’s Army Retakes Ground in Kordofan
Satellite imagery shows China has installed new surveillance equipment at its Djibouti base, boosting its reach across the Red Sea and East Africa, while Sudan’s army recaptured 11 areas in North Kordofan from the RSF. Verified developments, 16–19 September 2026.
Horn Update: Ethiopia Signals It’s ‘a Matter of Time’ Before It Retakes Assab
Horn Update, Issue No. 1. Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed says regaining sea access through Eritrea’s port of Assab is now ‘a matter of time,’ as both armies move toward their shared border. Plus: Sudan’s arms embargo gets a one-month reprieve, and the Berbera axis keeps shifting. Coverage period: 8–15 September 2026.
Daily Briefing: Houthis Seize Red Sea Islands as Sudan’s Embargo Wins a One-Month Reprieve
Houthi forces captured Mayun and the Hanish Islands near Bab al-Mandeb this week, tightening their grip on Red Sea shipping, while the UN Security Council extended Sudan’s Darfur arms embargo by one month rather than expanding it. Verified developments, 11–15 September 2026.