Daily Briefing: Ethiopia and Eritrea Trade War Accusations as Sudan’s Arms Embargo Is Extended and Hormuz Attacks Hit a Wartime High

Nexa Insight · Daily Briefing

A Region on the Brink

I. Horn of Africa

Ethiopia and Eritrea accused one another of starting a war after Ethiopian federal forces retook Tigray’s capital Mekelle from a seven-group rebel alliance and Eritrean troops were reported to have crossed into Ethiopian territory, while Sudan’s UN arms embargo was extended by just one month rather than expanded nationwide as its deadline arrived.

1. Ethiopia told the UN Security Council on 9 October that Eritrean forces had advanced up to 60km into northern Ethiopia in what Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos called an “all-out invasion,” and demanded their withdrawal; Addis Ababa also renewed its accusation that Asmara is backing the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Eritrea’s Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel rejected the claims, calling the situation an “unprovoked war of aggression” by Ethiopia and accusing Addis Ababa of using the conflict as cover to seize the Eritrean Red Sea port of Assab; Asmara denies backing the TPLF. Separately, witnesses told AFP that Ethiopian federal forces recaptured Mekelle, Shire and Adigrat from the rebel alliance over the past week, and that Eritrean troops were seen in Adigrat before Ethiopian drone strikes hit them there. Ethiopian police in Mekelle have asked residents to help restore order after the rebel withdrawal. (Sources: Al Jazeera; France 24; The Washington Post; The National) Analysis: a confirmed Ethiopian hold on Mekelle benefits Abiy Ahmed’s government by denying the TPLF its capital and reasserting federal control; any lasting Eritrean foothold inside Ethiopian territory would benefit Isaias Afwerki by tying down federal forces away from the border, while a further Ethiopian push toward Eritrean territory would cost Asmara most directly.
2. The UN Security Council unanimously voted on 8 October to extend its arms embargo on Sudan’s Darfur region by one month, to 11 December, rather than adopt the nationwide embargo Washington has pushed for since September. US senior adviser Massad Boulos said the short extension “is not a lapse in our resolve” and gives more time for talks; China and Russia, joined by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia, Somalia and Pakistan, opposed widening the measure beyond Darfur. The vote came as Sudan’s army said it repelled an RSF-SPLM-N assault on the Blue Nile town of Minza, near the Roseires Dam, while fresh fighting in Blue Nile state displaced close to 10,000 more people this week, according to the UN migration agency. (Sources: The National; UN Security Council press release) Analysis: the short, Darfur-only renewal costs the RSF nothing it did not already have, since outside supply routes into Sudan’s periphery remain unrestricted for now; China and Russia, which blocked the broader US-backed measure, are the clearest winners of the Council’s month-to-month deadlock.

Elsewhere in the Horn: this briefing found no significant new verified developments on Somalia, AUSSOM, Somaliland, South Sudan or Djibouti since the last edition.

II. Middle East

Attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz climbed to their highest sustained pace of the war, with strikes recorded on nearly every day of October so far, even as Yemen’s government-Houthi front lines held without confirmed change.

1. The International Maritime Organization recorded nine vessels struck in or near the Strait of Hormuz between 1 and 6 October, and the UK Maritime Trade Operations body reported at least two further attacks since — an unnamed tanker hit off Madinat ash Shamal, Qatar, on 7 October, and another hit off Al Jazeera, UAE, on 9 October. Lloyd’s List separately counted 12 attacks in the week to 7 October, which it called the highest weekly total since the US-Iran war began in February; analyst Richard Meade described a ship-to-ship transfer “shuttle system” now moving around the strikes that he called unsustainable. US Central Command says it has disabled 13 vessels through its own blockade and strikes on ships it accuses of violating it or sustaining Iran’s war effort, but did not identify them; responsibility for most individual strikes on tankers remains formally unclaimed. (Sources: USNI News, citing IMO/UKMTO/Lloyd’s List; CNBC) The gap between the IMO’s nine recorded incidents and Lloyd’s List’s count of 12 for an overlapping period is noted here rather than resolved, since the two trackers use different criteria.

Elsewhere in the region: this briefing found no confirmed change to Yemen’s government offensive around al-Waziyah and the Red Sea port of Mocha beyond what was reported in earlier editions, and no significant new verified developments on Gaza, Lebanon or Syria since the last edition.

III. The Great Powers

This briefing found no significant new verified movement among the great powers in the period since the last edition.

Elsewhere among the powers: the US Navy’s third carrier strike group continued its transit toward the Gulf with no reported change to its timeline, Russia’s Moscow Africa summit dates (28–29 October) remained as previously confirmed, and this briefing found no significant new verified movement from China, including on China-Taiwan tensions.

Abdinasir Hassan Timoweyne is Chairperson of the Nexa Research and Training Centre and a political analyst specialising in the Horn of Africa and the Middle East. He lectures in International Relations at New Generation University.